As predicted, the Colorado State Wrestling Tournament ended in spectacular style with four team champions and 336 wrestlers earning a podium finish. Over 42,000 people over 3 days jammed the Pepsi Center, a number that is one of the tops in the nation.  We are fortunate to have a sport be so embraced by a state that doesn’t receive a lot of national press for its support of the sport and competitors.

As I do every season, this report gives an overview of my state pix that were done last week and the tournament and ranking complications in general.  First, the numbers…

Overall State Pix percentage  -  76% (just over 3 of every 4 medalists picked correctly).  Although I was down a few percentage points from my 13 year average, I was so, so close to touching that magic 80%.  Thirteen (13) matches (33 point differential) that would have given me that 80 percent goal were decided by three points or less (including 6 OT matches). To add to the near misses, three athletes who were picked to place were either injured and/or dq’d for technical violations.  One kid was actually ahead late in the 2nd period when injured. 

There were 28 weights where I picked at least 5 of the 6 medalists (some we had 6 of 6).  Forty Four (44) kids that I picked to finish one away from a medal placed.  Assuming those picks were done correctly before state, my percentage would have been 89.3%!!

I was able to correctly pick 35 of the top 40 teams (2nd best in history – 36 was my best set 2 years ago) in each of the four classes.

Breakdown of the divisions show:

2A:  picked 7 out of the top 10 teams

3A:  picked 10 of the top 10 teams

4A:  picked 10 out of the top 10 teams

5A:  picked 8 out of the top 10 teams

The teams I picked to finish who didn’t…

Limon – finished 11th, 3.5 points out of 10th

Soroco and Center – finished tied for 13th, 7.5 points out of 10th

Centaurus – finished 11th – 2.5 points out of 10th

Grandview – finished 17th but only 10 ponts out of 10th.

So, when you run the numbers, 30 team points kept me from getting 40 of 40 teams in each of the 4 classes.  What this tells me is that the team picks at the end of the year are pretty much the top programs in the state.  Regarding the team state champions, we picked Dove Creek and Ponderosa correctly but had Brush and Alamosa finishing second.

We picked 53 of 56 finalists (95%).  The best was class 2A where we were 14 of 14;

We picked 40 of 56 state champs.  The best was class 5A where we picked 12 of the 14;

We had 28 weights where both finalists were picked correctly. This was 2 down from last year.

Perhaps one of the most positive notes was that my week 10 rankings were the second highest they have ever been in picking the medalists (75%).  That includes kids who shifted weights and those who didn’t get out of stacked regions (it would have been 78% with those points noted).  That is surprising to me being that this doesn’t take into account state bracket position. I actually did better with my class 2A rankings then my 2A state pix!! What this tells me is that I should look less at the regional tournament finishes and more at what athletes have done through the entire season (I found myself swayed more with regional tournament head to head matches).

One of the things that started happening in the latter quarter of the year was wrestlers who beat higher ranked kids. If you have ever worked a rankings program, it is pretty difficult to gauge sickness, injury or just plain apathy.  We had to look at who the kids lost to, their consistency of performance, schedule (which is a big issue in picking certain kids over others), and previous year’s history to guide us in the selections.  How many kids would you rank who had over 10 losses in a season? If you said none, you would have missed 10 medalists in class 2A, 13 in class 3A (where one kid placed who was 21-19), 8 in class 4A and 8 in class 5A.  Seven kids had more then 15 losses. You get a sense now for how hard it can be to substantiate where you place kids through a season (especially if your kid beat a ranked kid with 10 or more losses).  Note: 27 of the 39 aforementioned kids didn’t reach the 30 win mark so had a winning percentage of less then 75%.  Now that is some determined wrestling at state!!

Another point about rankings that is sometimes confusing for those who read them is the head to head match up.  A kid who defeats someone one time may not defeat them a second time.  We saw this happen several times.  So, we would move a kid ahead of another only to have them reverse the score at state!! Ugh! You get a sense for my frustrations sometimes.  Another point that needs to be noted is the third match syndrome that we often see.  Nearly 80% of the time, when two good kids meet and the same person wins the first two matches, the third match goes to the other kid.  One prime example of this was in the state finals between Jeremy Aguero of Pueblo South and Duell Kelly of Alamosa. Kelly won the first two only to see Aguero win the third match.  The same holds true when two kids split their first two matches. Most of the time the third match goes to the kid who won the first match.

It was a great year.  Hopefully you all enjoyed the rankings and what we provided to you throughout the season.  Be sure to subscribe next season. Forms will be available in the fall. 

Cheers.