Is there any better time during the year then when State comes knocking on
our door? Few things can touch it. With the tourney mere hours away, I thought
it might be fun to give you some insight on what I see happening at the state
tourney. Although my prognostications may not be perfect, they are based on
some fairly strong evidence of past wrestling activity. Unfortunately what I
can’t gauge is heart, illness and injury. That is where I will miss on some of
these state pix.
2A
I have ridden Dove Creek as the number one team for the entire season. Usually
when I do that, there is strong reason. Although they narrowly defeated a very
good Dolores team at regionals, my calculations show them edging Rocky Ford by
12 points. I have Dolores slated in at the number 3 spot. What will make Dove
creek hard to beat is the number of people who will score for them – every kid
they take downtown. How could Rocky Ford defeat them (holding my pix for Dove
Creek constant) – by beating my prognostications in three weights where at least
one is two places higher then what I predict and two others by one place. That
is how close this race will be. Merino will need some help to close the gap but
certainly have enough placers to make a statement.
3A
You won’t believe how many kidney punches I received on keeping Roosevelt over
Brush, late in the season. But, I have an explanation which is based on quality
point differential:
Because rankings are based on how many points a wrestler MAY score at state
(each place carries points…which I have calculated based on the previous five
years in that weight and class. Example: the average number of points a person
who wins 145 in class 5A is 24.5 while 6th is 7 points). In a dual, a very good
kid who wins by fall scores the same number of points as an average kid won wins
by fall. Such is why I can’t and won’t look at dual team scores (I review
individual match scores only). At regionals, average kids who don’t qualify
still score points so it isn’t a good gauge of who is better from a team
perspective. At state, the good kids carry the big points while average kids
won’t score much, if any.
Monte Vista won state in the 90’s with 5 kids. They won very few duals and
didn’t win a tournament the entire year. Last year, Wasson finished second with
three kids scoring 99% of the points but didn’t win a dual and were middle of
the pack at best in most other tourneys. Quality wins tough tourneys. Such is
why I still have Roosevelt over Brush.
Again, if Brush kids wrestle above my predictions, they will beat Roosevelt.
Because I rely on consistency of performances over the entire year, I commit my
conscious to stay with what I believe will happen in Denver this weekend.
Note: It is going to be very, very close (less then 10 points difference).
Time will tell.
This might go down as one of the best 3A battles in some time and may not be
decided until the 171 pound match where Roosevelt and Brush are picked to finish
1-2.
A team that would scare me to death if I was Roosevelt or Brush is Florence.
They have good quality and plenty of depth, having qualified all 14 for state.
With a couple of unpredicted wins here and there, they will push the top two
teams. Expect them to be in the mix the entire tourney. The team that may very
well sit back just off the front runners is Olathe. They are comfortable at the
top so don’t be surprised if they are around at the end.
4A
Running the state tournament takes hours and hours because of the review I do
with my data base (where I enter every match from every tournament and as many
duals as I can run down). I have to admit, this class took an extra hour. I
worked every conceivable win or loss for every kid the top three teams had in
the tournament. The result is Broomfield winning by 1 point over Alamosa. But,
Northridge was only 2 points back. Bonus points are going to win the state
tournament in this class. Any unexpected losses will also tilt the scale.
Thompson Valley is 20 points back but could be the surprise team if they get
some upsets along the way.
5A
Ponderosa is going to be very, very tough to beat. Our predictions show them
scoring more points then any other team in the state tournament. Legacy though
has numbers and could run with Ponderosa early. The key for them will be what
happens in the semis and consolation semis. Pomona is going to run with their
quality and could be that surprise team if they can get some finalists.
Ponderosa should have one for the thumb this year…something that only one other
team in state history can lay claim to in CO history.
So, here we go. Lace up the shoes and get ready for some awesome CO wrestling
action.
On The Mat Rankings for 2006-2007
State Tournament Predictions
February 12, 2007
Contact: Tim Yount at tim@onthematrankings.com
Phone: 719-660-0628 or 719-488-2818 Fax: 719-488-0909
5A
1-Ponderosa
2-Legacy
3-Pomona
4-Loveland
5-Brighton
6-Regis
7-Grandview
8-Northglenn
9-Chaparral
10-Centaurus
11-Pine Creek
12-Highlands Ranch
13-Rocky Mountain
14-Grand Junction
15-Fruita Monument
4A
1-Broomfield
2-Alamosa
3-Northridge
4-Thompson Valley
5-Rifle
6-Fort Morgan
7-Greeley Central
8-Fort Lupton
9-Moffat County
10-Pueblo West
11-Berthoud
12-Palisade
13-Pueblo East
14-Mullen
15-Pueblo South
3A
1-Roosevelt
2-Brush
3-Florence
4-Olathe
5-Gunnison
6-St Marys
7-Arrupe Jesuit
8-Lamar
9-Monte Vista
10-Eaton
11-Lajunta
12-Centauri
13-Bayfield
14-Yuma
15-Salida
2A
1-Dove Creek
2-Rocky Ford
3-Dolores
4-Merino
5-Burlington
6-Nucla
7-Paonia
8-Center
9-Soroco
10-Limon
11-Meeker
12-Holyoke
13-Dolores Huerta
14-Lyons
15-Wiggins
103lbs
1) Justin Iacovetto, Soroco
2) Drew Ritchey, Wray
3) David Garcia, Rocky Ford
4) Kevin Torrez, Manzanola
5) Garrison Ortiz, Delores Huerta
6) Devin Rose, Rangely
One Away:
Andrew Scherrer, Simla
Jared Doll, Meeker
112lbs
1) Grant Hobbs, Dove Creek
2) Chad Stroh, Holyoke
3) Edwin Cruz, Del Norte
4) Brett Bruner, Dolores
5) Dillon McCombs, Wiggins
6) Gilbert Hernandez, Center
One Away:
Bryan Hamacher, Simla
Ethan Kinner, Hilltop Baptist
119lbs
1) Daniel Espinoza, Antonito
2) Ryan Gallegos, Grand Valley
3) Tyler McCracken, Eads
4) Bon Kinder, Burlington
5) Ty Sickels, Nucla
6) Chase Chesterman, Merino
One Away:
Ryan Kirby, Byers
Stephan Boleng, Rangely
125lb
1) Wade Beiriger, Center
2) Dustin Weitzel, Dolores
3) Wacey Smith, Merino
4) Chris Gebauer, Akron
5) Brad Dillon, Nucla
6) Max Cruz, Del Norte
One Away:
Lukas Wiggins, Paonia
Cameron Penny, Burlington
130lbs
1) Chris Penny, Burlington
2) Drake Smith, Dolores
3) Joel Schlegal, Soroco
4) John Brown, Merino
5) Josh Sparks, Dove Creek
6) Jordan Miller, Limon
One Away:
Levi Schoepner, Akron
Jared Tonder, Grand Valley
135lbs
1) Colten Huskey, Dove Creek
2) Jake Harris, Dolores
3) Daniel Coffey, Lyons
4) Travis Schwindt, Rocky Ford
5) Devin Roswold, Simla
6) Andrew Abeyta, Antonito
One Away:
Roston Steiner, Meeker
Wyatt Barber, Merino
140lbs
1) Chris Holzworth, Fowler
2) Hugh Hardman, Norwood
3) Dylan Glover, Calhan
4) Frank Christensen, Akron
5) Cody Smith, Merino
6) Tyler Eberhardt, Lyons
One Away:
Denny Beanland, Dove Creek
Josh Prescott, Meeker
145lbs
1) Kevin LeValley, Limon
2) Jacob Guynes, Dove Creek
3) Matt Harmon, Rocky Ford
4) Austin Amen, Merino
5) Nick Segura, Dolores Huerta
6) Ty Spangler, Nucla
One Away:
Josh Conde, Holyoke
Cody Harris, Dolores
152lbs
1) Ross Brunkhardt, Merino
2) Mikey Swigart, Dolores
3) Jonathan Franklin, Holyoke
4) Zack Meyer, John Mall
5) Eric Stiasny, Dove Creek
6) Steve Martinez, Crowley County
One Away:
Zach Harmon, Sargent
Cody Miles, Grand Valley
160lbs
1) Joe LeBlanc, Meeker
2) Chris Schweizer, Rocky Ford
3) Josh Ackerman, Lyons
4) Devon Brown, Paonia
5) David Brachtenbach, Stratton
6) Jared Oestman, Wray
One Away:
Brogan Walters, Crowley County
Adam Warsh, Center
17llbs
1) Tanner Ridgway, Paonia
2) Matt Stiasny, Dove Creek
3) Jacob Jurney, Rocky Ford
4) Kevin Lindholm, Eads
5) Alonso Rodriguez, Dolores Huerta
6) Kyle Woods, Custer County
One Away:
Garrett Neill, Holly
Coy Letlow, Hayden
189lbs
1) Stryker Lane, Nucla
2) Dennis Morgan, Soroco
3) Drew Clay, Limon
4) Steven Turecek, Byers
5) Carlos Lopez, Center
6) Tyler Burnett, Baca County
One Away:
Mike Satterly, Burlington
David Brown, Sangro de Cristo
215lbs
1) Brian Hendricks, Burlington
2) Josh Olsen, Calhan
3) Braiden Banks, Dove Creek
4) Korey Kennedy, Paonia
5) Floyd Chavez, Center
6) Omar Perez, Rocky Ford
One Away:
Levi Garrett, Holyoke
Dominic Hottinger, Akron
285lbs
1) Tucker Lane, Nucla
2) Bryan Crespin, John Mall
3) Brock Freidenberger, Rocky Ford
4) John Hinton, Paonia
5) Kyle Pollock, Wiggins
6) Isaiah Churchwell, Burlington
One Away:
Coltin Houghtelli, Holyoke
Bill Gray, Crowley County
103lbs
1) Gabrian Martinez, St Marys
2) Benny Ramirez, Yuma
3) Ty Robinson, Castleview
4) Spencer Smith, Buena Vista
5) Kyle Walter, Roosevelt
6) Jose Medina, Olathe
One Away:
Leo Elizaldi, Hotchkiss
Garrett Eastep, Manitou Springs
112lbs
1) John Bailey, Florence
2) Ross Leyba, Lajunta
3) Jake Eitzen, Estes Park
4) Pablo Mascarenas, Monte Vista
5) Steven Smith, Pagosa Springs
6) Zach Legino, Roosevelt
One Away:
Coleton Nicklas, Yuma
Cahlen Keys, Centauri
119lbs
1) Cody Cole, Brush
2) Bryson Gray, Olathe
3) Philip Sheridan, Centauri
4) Vincente Gallegos, Arrupe Jesuit
5) Zach Trujillo, Monte Vista
6) Dylan McKie, Yuma
One Away:
Trevor Huntsman, Bayfield
Michael Williams, Strasburg
125lbs
1) Ethan Martinez, St Marys
2) Dan Frank, Roosevelt
3) Andrew Addington, Florence
4) Tom Ketchum, Lajunta
5) Jaime Goza, Olathe
6) Cole Kembel, Brush
One Away:
Craig Wisehart, Platte Valley
Adam Garcia, Monte Vista
130lbs
1) Richard Apodaca, Arrupe Jesuit
2) PJ Gallegos, Roosevelt
3) Cody Haga, Ignacio
4) Ely Martinez, St Marys
5) Phillip Gallegos, Lajunta
6) Matthew Addington, Florence
One Away:
Justin Fleshman, Lamar
Tanner Christensen, Brush
135lbs
1) Mitchell Polkowske, Centauri
2) Justin Prieto, Monte Vista
3) Levi Tredway, Gunnison
4) Derrick Cordova, Brush
5) Roy Westbrook, Bayfield
6) Troy Kuhlman, Highland
One Away:
Eric Tiedeman, Bennett
Jared Cass, Platte Valley
140lbs
1) Lance Gallegos, Arrupe Jesuit
2) Micky Koonce, Florence
3) Travis Darling, Ignacio
4) Richie Grauberger, Brush
5) Matt Smith, Eaton
6) Josh Newbury, Yuma
One Away:
Lyle Vannest, Olathe
Kevin Warren, Monte Vista
145lbs
1) Jordan Larsen, Bayfield
2) Brandon Montoya, Roosevelt
3) Rafael Munoz, Brush
4) Joe Ducharme, Pagosa Springs
5) Zack Farber, Buena Vista
6) Tony Magno, Florence
One Away:
Lonny Graham, Highland
Casey Seifert, Sheridan
152lbs
1) Tim Frank, Roosevelt
2) Dustin Cadwell, Gunnison
3) Mike Smith, Pagosa Springs
4) Aaron Smith, Florence
5) Wes Yarnell, Olathe
6) Shane Mendoza, University
One Away:
Chad Turner, Manitou Springs
Justen Strang, Middle Park
160lbs
1) Brandon Kammerzell, Eaton
2) Chris Diaz, Olathe
3) Cade Hasser, Lamar
4) Justin Grosse, Gunnison
5) Jeff Plumb, Roosevelt
6) Zach Diaz, Yuma
One Away:
Gaire Rudnik, Brush
Sean Allen, Clear Creek
171lbs
1) Nathan Heuer, Roosevelt
2) Aaron Quinlin, Brush
3) Eric Lee, Gunnison
4) Adam Symonds, Platte Valley
5) Brady Quarry, Manitou Springs
6) Christian Griffith, Eaton
One Away:
Scott Campbell, Florence
German Gutierrez, Monte Vista
189lbs
1) Kyle Martinez, Olathe
2) David Clark, Platte Valley
3) Joe O’Farrell, University
4) Daniel Rubalcaba, Brush
5) Jake Fickle, Buena Vista
6) Nick Miller, Cedaredge
One Away:
Aaron Batt, Eaton
Markus Eckstein, Bayfield
215lbs
1) Mike Mazzucca, Salida
2) Brandon Vaughn, Lamar
3) Nick Dreitz, Brush
4) Scott Redden, Gunnison
5) Dustin Frank, Roosevelt
6) Preston Rininger, Eaton
One Away:
Michael Beard, Hotchkiss
Jon Medley, Florence
285lbs
1) Austin Kinnison, Highland
2) Scott Wilkins, Salida
3) Troy Appel, Lamar
4) Tanner Wilcox, Florence
5) Anthony Curiel, Middle Park
6) Gilbert Martinez, Trinidad
One Away:
Adam Waters, Brush
Tyler Hawk, Olathe
1) Jesse Meis, Alamosa
3) Gilbert Garcia, Prairie View
4) Francisco Diego, Fort Morgan
5) Casey Lynn, Cortez
6) Jerry Huff, Broomfield
One Away:
Stephen Prejean, Widefield
Joe Martinez, Ranum
1) Dale Shull, Fort Lupton
2) Zach Maes, Mullen
3) Gabe Gomez, Broomfield
4) Victor Sanchez, Pueblo West
5) Brandyn Wahlert, Berthoud
6) Dalton Kelley, Alamosa
One Away:
Robert Pickrell, Northridge
Jordan Wagner, Longmont
1) James Conrardy, Rifle
2) Brice Boling, Moffat County
3) Jeremy Aguero, Pueblo South
4) Graeden Sadlo, Berthoud
5) Duell Kelley, Alamosa
6) Nate Fisk, Conifer
One Away:
Eric Zamora, Fort Lupton
Josh McGirl, Thompson Valley
1) James Rowell, Thompson Valley
2) Paul Alva, Sterling
3) Ryan Trujillo, Broomfield
4) Jake Breslin, Moffat County
5) Nick Ludwig, Berthoud
6) Isaac Hernandez, Pueblo County
One Away:
Brian Wilson, Prairie View
Chad Pompa, Pueblo South
1) Saul Guerrero, Fort Lupton
2) Samuel Soto, Fort Morgan
3) James Harvey, Eagle Valley
4) Riley Lindemann, Niwot
5) Justin Samora, Cortez
6) Michael Rangel, Greeley Central
One Away:
Cody McAnich, Broomfield
Matt Kincheloe, Moffat County
1) Justin Gonzales, Northridge
2) Scott Schaeffer, Greeley Central
3) Eric Mortenson, Broomfield
4) Bryce Penn, Englewood
5) Jason Horne, Thompson Valley
6) Jesse Johnson, Cortez
One Away:
Josh Lucero, Fountain Fort Carson
Houston Mader, Steamboat Springs
2) Matt Basquez, Pueblo East
3) Rodney Hesse, Greeley Central
4) Spenser Sadlo, Berthoud
5) Drake Huggans, Northridge
6) Jeff Phillips, Thompson Valley
Mike Tovo, Fountain Fort Carson
1) Austin Stubaus, Cheyenne Mountain
2) Justin Keys, Pueblo East
3) Easton Ramirez, Northridge
5) Ty Tatman, Delta
6) Ryan Fountain, Frederick
One Away:
Derrek Fruetel, Rifle
Donovan Archuleta, Alamosa
2) Seamus Waples, Mullen
3) Joey Gomez, Golden
4) Matt Chavez, Fort Morgan
5) Chris McWhorter, Pueblo South
6) Jarrod Purvis, Mesa Ridge
One Away:
Derek Vasquez, Northridge
Kent Blackburn, Mountain View
1) Cody Yohn, Alamosa
2) Patrick Gomez, Northridge
3) Jairin Potter, Englewood
4) Landon Barnes, Palisade
5) Brandon Martz, Liberty
6) Rudy Chavez, Fort Morgan
One Away:
Sean McMullen, Cheyenne Mountain
Sam VanHorn, Thompson Valley
1) Johnny Ortega, Thompson Valley
2) Brice Wolf, Greeley Central
3) Steven Haddock, Longmont
4) Mike Ross, Pueblo West
6) Davi Martinez, Alamosa
One Away:
Terence Salazar, Northridge
Tony Cabello, Harrison
1) Sonny Yohn, Alamosa
2) Josh Larson, Windsor
3) Nick Navratil, Moffat County
4) Tony Chavarria, Pueblo West
5) Brendan Best, Eagle Valley
6) Lance Mijares, Northridge
One Away:
J.J. Velarde, Ridgeview Academy
Josh Rangel, Greeley Central
1) David Marone, Broomfield
2) Justin Waterman, Greeley West
3) Caleb Sisneros, Palisade
4) Fabian Guerrero, Fort Lupton
5) Blake Steiert, Mountain View
6) Kevin Davis, Mesa Ridge
One Away:
Alfonzo Moore, Thomas Jefferson
Rico Garcia, Canon City
1) Tim Saucedo, Northridge
2) Nick Zissimos, Broomfield
3) Kyle Graulus, Fort Morgan
4) Wes Owens, Palisade
5) Moises Alcala, Ranum
6) Mike Hawkins, Thomas Jefferson
One Away:
Darren Christopher, Windsor
Bradley Taillon, Fountain Fort Carson
1) Chris Wessel, Legacy
2) Eric Wilson, Grandview
3) Jeremy Schmitt, Rocky Mountain
4) Marcus May, Green Mountain
5) Dominic Madril, Pomona
6) Logan Burch, Rampart
One Away:
Jeremy Robledo, Brighton
Colby Kluesner, Arapahoe
1) Phil Grout, Northglenn
2) Gavin Peters, Standley Lake
3) Josh Kreimier, Loveland
4) Steven Kelly, Ponderosa
5) Mike Vigil, Legacy
6) Brandon Ford, Rampart
Gabe Mamigonian, Heritage
Geronimo Gemoya, Grand Junction
2) Kory Johnson, Pine Creek
3) Zeke Hofer, Ponderosa
4) Paul Montoya, Brighton
5) Cade Robinson, Douglas County
6) Adam Dunne, Legacy
One Away:
David George, Rampart
Nolan Myers, Smoky Hill
1) Jacob Snider, Ponderosa
2) Dominic Valenzuela, Centaurus
5) Lorenzo Garcia, Northglenn
6) Patrick Brown, Grandview
One Away:
Sammy Martinez, Doherty
1) Tyler Graff, Loveland
2) Oliver Yaney, Air Academy
3) Daniel Kelly, Ponderosa
4) Mikie Burgess, Green Mountain
5) Bryant Hicks, Heritage
6) Tino Laureles, Rocky Mountain
One Away:
Vince Gallegos, Legacy
Jacob Milewski, Denver East
2) Rhett Breed, Durango
3) Tyler McGoffin, Grandview
4) Daniel Armijo, Aurora Central
5) Josh Gutierrez, Legacy
6) Ryan Olvera, Eaglecrest
One Away:
Zach Valdez, Ponderosa
1) John Hooper, Regis
2) Dietrick Turney, Brighton
3) Tyler Young, Grand Junction
4) Seiji Hashimoto, Thornton
5) Mike DeBaca, Legacy
6) John Bissell, Pine Creek
One Away:
Travis Tullio, Fruita Monument
Darian Roberts, Arvada West
4) Ceasar Crespin, Centaurus
5) Justin Jefferies, Brighton
6) Craig Odell, Pine Creek
One Away:
Ryan Swanson, Douglas County
Matt Spotten, Rocky Mountain
3) Dave Little, Rocky Mountain
5) Tyson Blatter, Columbine
6) Martin Sare, Thunderridge
One Away:
Kyle Martin, Coronado
Tucker Korus, Arapahoe
1) Matt Murphy, Chaparral
4) Garrett Lanham, Centaurus
5) Pasha Tabatabai, Regis
6) Justin Marts, Bear Creek
One Away:
Than Hedman, Denver East
Chad Quick, Legacy
1) Micah Burak, Coronado
2) Jeff Quinlin, Highlands Ranch
3) Sal Howes, Arvada
4) Jacob Terada, Northglenn
5) Matt Strohm, Regis
One Away:
Gabe Gardner, Air Academy
Jake Julian, Chaparral
1) Nick Bauman, Legacy
2) Willie McClure, Pomona
3) Luke Vandenburg, Loveland
4) Steven Cruz, Chaparral
5) Kenny Smith, Wasson
6) Rob Wilt, Doherty
One Away:
Ryan Gray, Denver East
Austin Harper, Fruita Monument
1) Robby Unger, Highlands Ranch
2) Robert Tucker, Grand Junction
3) Jake Ottmann, Ponderosa
4) Ben Hicks, Pine Creek
5) Caleb Galbraith, Brighton
6) Matt Johnson, Cherry Creek
One Away:
John Eddings, Boulder
Dyrell Hallcy, Denver East
2) Jon Russell, Palmer
3) Joe Boyd, Pomona
4) Chris Kiel, Denver East
5) Leroy Vigil, Adams City
6) Ryan Tauer, Regis
One Away:
Jacob Richmeier, Wheat Ridge
Taylor Stam, Ponderosa